Predictions and Commentary, 2009

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2009

Hi all!

Welcome to this year's edition of Predictions and Commentary, with your hostess Pippin06 aka Kylie.  Above is your official nomination list for this year's Academy Awards.  What are your predictions?  Snubs?  Surprises?  How do you like that appallingly large font?  Here's the place to discuss it.  When I'm not bound by the conventions of my day-job, I'll weigh in later myself.  In the meantime, Happy Oscar season.

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2009

While I'm a little surprised, I'm actually not disappointed to see The Dark Knight being 'snubbed'.  It was an exceptional film in the comic-book genre, but honestly I didn't think it was as good as the first, and despite its success and praise, I don't think it really change anyone's life or elevated the art of filmmaking in any way.

I think Heath Ledger is deserving for a nomination of best supporting actor, but beyond that the film just didn't do much more for me than say a Will Smith film would.  I guess I just wasn't that impressed by the film.

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2009

Hi all:

The following titles I'm unable to find and add to the Nominations list in our group at this time because they are either not in Spout's database, or I can't find a suitable enough translation.  If you know the translation of the foreign titles, please offer the English title or the link on Spout.  Thanks!

The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Oktapodi
Presto (Pixar short)
Manon sur le bitume
Grisen
Spielzeugland

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2009

Great idea to host an oxcars converstaion.

I'd like to set my parameters by asking three things:

First, why are we focusing on 2008? Well, because we have seen all the movies that went before and we wait anxiously for what is new. (Not true of me.)

Second, I have seen all the Oscar contenders, but how do I make up my mind? (Not true for me. This year for the first time, I actually tried to se all the oscr nomination, but our local cinema has carried maybe half.)

Third, who wins is crucial, n'est-ce pas? Actually, who wins is a pile of -- poliitic -- but who is nominted is a reasonable representation of outstanding movies last year. So once the nominations are announced, we say thankyou, and pay no more attention. Actually , we debate the nominees, but we don't care who actually "wins" as far as the academy is concerned, but only as far as we are concerned.

Dark Knight--I thought it was powerful, overwhelming.

Wall-E--the most over-rated movie of the year. Hackneyed plots, hackneyed themes, etc. It will win. This should not concern us. Rather, look to Bolt, a superb aninmation with a profound theme and lots of engrossing characters.

The Visitor--love and hate this film; great acting adn I love the Diredctor's work, but a subtle thme that does not withstand much scrutiny

Get Smart--hilarious; also an astute update of the old Get Smart; but who pays attention to comedy when there is a holocaust?

I thank the Academy for their nominations. I have added all films to my list. I do not care when I see them. I do not care who wins. Thanks.

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2009

JimBell:

Great idea to host an oxcars converstaion.

I'd like to set my parameters by asking three things:

First, why are we focusing on 2008? Well, because we have seen all the movies that went before and we wait anxiously for what is new. (Not true of me.)

Second, I have seen all the Oscar contenders, but how do I make up my mind? (Not true for me. This year for the first time, I actually tried to se all the oscr nomination, but our local cinema has carried maybe half.)

Third, who wins is crucial, n'est-ce pas? Actually, who wins is a pile of -- poliitic -- but who is nominted is a reasonable representation of outstanding movies last year. So once the nominations are announced, we say thankyou, and pay no more attention. Actually , we debate the nominees, but we don't care who actually "wins" as far as the academy is concerned, but only as far as we are concerned.

Dark Knight--I thought it was powerful, overwhelming.

Wall-E--the most over-rated movie of the year. Hackneyed plots, hackneyed themes, etc. It will win. This should not concern us. Rather, look to Bolt, a superb aninmation with a profound theme and lots of engrossing characters.

The Visitor--love and hate this film; great acting adn I love the Diredctor's work, but a subtle thme that does not withstand much scrutiny

Get Smart--hilarious; also an astute update of the old Get Smart; but who pays attention to comedy when there is a holocaust?

I thank the Academy for their nominations. I have added all films to my list. I do not care when I see them. I do not care who wins. Thanks.

I know probably much of this is rhetorical, but I can' t stop myself!  That's what this thread is here for, after all :-).

Some people like the Oscars, as in the actual Oscars.  And some people like to predict who wins because of the politics.  This group has two purposes: to discuss the Oscars themselves (if you enjoy that sort of thing, which I do) and to discuss what is actually the Best, usually based on what you've seen, best of lists, etc.  Either one is fair, even if you prefer one to the other because you find the other distasteful.  So!  Let's revisit this one, eh: who likes the Oscars hoopla and who doesn't? 

First, this thread is devoted to 2008 because it is an annual thread.  I've started a new one each year since I started the group, way back when in Spout's beta test.  They focus on the broadcast of the year listed.  Simple as that.

Second, you can make up your own mind on what you want.  The Oscars are a load of tripe or a fun distraction.  The movies they nominate are quality or not.  The process they use is legitimate or seriously rigged.  Whether you see all the movies or not...  it depends on how you look at it, and all opinions are valid here.  Some group members don't really care a whole whit for the Oscars themselves but are still game to discuss the films.  All are welcome to this, the Oscar-lovers group.

Third, some people like to debate what will be nominated.  I (and others, I hope) like to dissect the choices that eventually get chosen because, to me, the nominees will always be foregone conclusions.  That's why I started to list other awards show nominees and winners, like the Critics' Choice and Golden Globes, which get the first stab at nominating films and pretty much form how Oscar's going to nominate, with the notable difference that the former two nominate a wider berth of films for more awards.  Some people like to guess at what will be nominated and then react violently when their guesses are wrong.  That's ok too.  It's all open here.  Some people just want to know what would be a good sampling of films to watch.  Some people do actually care who wins, so they can react violently if they thought something else should win.  That's why Oscar hoopla is so fertile for conversation.

So, taking the films Jim highlighted because he liked or disliked them vis-a-vis what was nominated or not (and here's some of my commentary; more to follow later).

--Everyone's up in arms that The Dark Knight got snubbed.  I'm here to tell you, devotees, that it never had a chance at being nominated for Best Picture.  I like-loved The Dark Knight myself, but when was the last time you saw a comic-book movie or action-adventure movie get nominated for the top category?  I mean, it happens, like, every 25 years, and the last time we saw something close was Lord of the Rings.  The critics and the Hollywood Foreign Press nominate more films, but the film didn't win their top honors, and if they were restricted to five films for any category, combining comedy and drama, I would venture to guess that Batman wouldn't have been up for them either.  Now, if Heath Ledger wasn't nominated, that would have been the true snub.  But he was nominated.  None of the five nominated Best Pictures were surprises.  And they are all dramas with various degrees of edgyness or progressiveness, which is what Oscar has always nominated and will continue to nominate until they revise the rules.  That's why some people don't like Oscar.  They're predictable - though not always when it comes to the winners.  Hence the predictions thread.  Feel free to start making any for those who like to do it.  Now, who wants to lambast the Academy for this decision because The Dark Knight was the.best.film.ever.  Come on, you know you want to :-).

--Wall-E: Jim thinks it's overrated because it's generally "hackneyed" in the story department.  I think it's a masterpiece of technical achievement (and revisited plot themes/devices or no, they work in this film).  So, too, does Oscar.  It's a shooin for the Animated Feature award, which focuses on the combination of story and visual presentation; there was an outsider's chance that it would have been nominated for Best Picture, but, again, not a drama, and it's a fancy cartoon.  Not every film is going to please everyone, but I haven't met many who've disliked this one, and the Academy doesn't exactly pull for the minority.  Just sayin'.

--I haven't seen Get Smart.  I want to.  But, since I've heard widely mixed reviews from just people I know, since I haven't seen it on any "best of the year" lists, and since it's at 53% on Rotten Tomatoes (which is considered rotten, by the way), I'm going to propose that maybe you should cut the Academy a break on this one, Jim.  It's not everyone's cup of tea, comedy or no.  Now, for me personally, because of my undying love for Steve Carell, I'm still going to see it.  Who wants to talk about this one?  It's way down on my Netflix queue; anyone want to talk me out of seeing it?

Anyone else care to comment?  This is the place to do it!

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2009

JimBell:

Dark Knight--I thought it was powerful, overwhelming.

Wall-E--the most over-rated movie of the year. Hackneyed plots, hackneyed themes, etc. It will win. This should not concern us. Rather, look to Bolt, a superb aninmation with a profound theme and lots of engrossing characters.

The Visitor--love and hate this film; great acting adn I love the Diredctor's work, but a subtle thme that does not withstand much scrutiny

Get Smart--hilarious; also an astute update of the old Get Smart; but who pays attention to comedy when there is a holocaust?

I thank the Academy for their nominations. I have added all films to my list. I do not care when I see them. I do not care who wins. Thanks.

I completely agree on Wall-E... I saw it, enjoyed it, but did not think it was the profound ground-breaking landmark everyone seemed to think it was.  The plot was good, and one I resonate with, but all the same it was used and tired.  I honestly think the public confused "cute film" with "landmark film" and were amazed at their own ability to enjoy a film with a nearly mute main character.  I also think the enamoration had something to do with the robot lead--something that was heavily en vogue in the mid-eighties into the early nineties, but hasn't been seen much since.

However, I need to disagree on The Dark Knight.  I posted about it over in Top 5 Most Overrated Films but I think I need to say it again.  Its a comic-book movie, and a good one at that, but still a comic book movie.  The dialogue through out the film was nothing short of pallid and predicatble, Christian Bale was entirely forgettable, Maggie Gyllenhaal is neither attractive or a capable actress, and Heath Ledger's outstand performance and interpretation of the maniacal Joker completely stole the show--however, one good performance does not make an award-winning film.  Give Ledger the Best Supporting Actor award, but let's stop the Dark Knight at that.

Get Smart I also found a bit tedious.  I watched the original series religiously after school as a kid and can to this day recall some of the funnier bits.  I was very disappointed with Carrell's performance, which I am going to attribute to the director as Carrell is capable of no wrong in my eyes.  The movie started out pretty good and reasonably funny, but became more and more tedious and too serious for a slapstick spy comedy.  Carrell didn't 'bungle' enough.  Thankfully, I got to look at Anne Hathaway for an hour and a half.

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2009

Here are my predictions for this year.  PS, if you pay attention, the British equivalent of the Oscars, the BAFTAs were held recently.  They don't really affect American outcomes, but there is a lot of overlap this year, which is interesting.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2009

Vals Im Bashir = Waltz with Bashir

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2009

The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Oktapodi
Presto (Pixar short)
Manon sur le bitume (Manon on the Asphalt)
Grisen (The Pig)
Spielzeugland (Toyland)