I am late on these predictions because I am currently involved in two musicals, including performing onstage with Oklahoma! at Grand Rapids Civic Theater here in Grand Rapids, Michigan. We just opened, and as a result, I have not had time to 1.) watch Oscar movies; 2.) watch any movies (which would have been nice for the little review contest...); 3.) make anything but last minute predictions.
Here are my predictions, though. They're not going to be pretty, but here they are, nonetheless. Register your predictions and agreement/disagreement here. In the meantime, if you're in the Grand Rapids area, come see Oklahoma! It's corny but infectious.
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| | Leonardo DiCaprio in “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.) |
| | Ryan Gosling in “Half Nelson” (THINKFilm) |
| | Peter O’Toole in “Venus” (Miramax, Filmfour and UK Council) |
| | Will Smith in “The Pursuit of Happyness” (Sony Pictures Releasing) |
| X | Forest Whitaker in “The Last King of Scotland” (Fox Searchlight) |
| Explanation: Forest is a practical shoo-in. He has won every major award up until now for his role in this movie. Peter O'Toole was honored with lifetime achievement, in 2003 and this is not the three other actors' year. Simple enough. |
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| | Alan Arkin in “Little Miss Sunshine” (Fox Searchlight) |
| | Jackie Earle Haley in “Little Children” (New Line) |
| | Djimon Hounsou in “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.) |
| X | Eddie Murphy in “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount) |
| | Mark Wahlberg in “The Departed” (Warner Bros.) |
| Explanation: Eddie has also won most if not all of the major awards up until now for his Berry Gordy esque portrayal. The only other possible contender is Alan Arkin, but I don't see him winning when all signs are pointing to Eddie. Plus, apparently there is controversy surrounding him yet again, and that always seems to happen to him when something good comes along. |
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| | Penélope Cruz in “Volver” (Sony Pictures Classics) |
| | Judi Dench in “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight) |
| X | Helen Mirren in “The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) |
| | Meryl Streep in “The Devil Wears Prada” (20th Century Fox) |
| | Kate Winslet in “Little Children” (New Line) |
| Explanation: Helen is a shoo-in. She played a living queen and apparently to riveting tee. She's also won all major awards prior to Oscar. Her only possible contender is Meryl Streep, but she's already won twice, and I don't see that character trumping Queen Elizabeth, I just don't. |
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| | Adriana Barraza in “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) |
| | Cate Blanchett in “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight) |
| | Abigail Breslin in “Little Miss Sunshine” (Fox Searchlight) |
| X | Jennifer Hudson in “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount) |
| | Rinko Kikuchi in “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) |
| Explanation: Jennifer has won it all so far like everyone else. She's a practical shoo-in. There's also that Cinderella component, being that this is her first major film role, and her start was American Idol. Her only possible contention is Abigail Breslin, who has won a couple of smaller awards, but I doubt she'll get it. |
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| X | “Cars” (Buena Vista) John Lasseter |
| | “Happy Feet” (Warner Bros.) George Miller |
| | “Monster House” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Gil Kenan |
| Explanation: Pixar is a juggernaut, and Cars has won all animated awards over these other two films to date. I haven't seen Happy Feet, but Cars was better than Monster House in my opinion, too. |
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| X | “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount)
Art Direction: John Myhre
Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh |
| | “The Good Shepherd” (Universal)
Art Direction: Jeannine Oppewall
Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau and Leslie E. Rollins |
| | “Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse)
Art Direction: Eugenio Caballero
Set Decoration: Pilar Revuelta |
| | “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (Buena Vista)
Art Direction: Rick Heinrichs
Set Decoration: Cheryl A. Carasik |
| | “The Prestige” (Buena Vista)
Art Direction: Nathan Crowley
Set Decoration: Julie Ochipinti |
| Explanation: Art Direction refers to sets, properties, and the "look and feel" of a picture. Dreamgirls received the most noms of any film, and many of them were in these kinds of categories. The trouble is, I am not sure at all what is going to win this. Art Direction favors period pictures, which all of these could technically be. I simply think Dreamgirls will emerge with many of these awards for no other good reason than it got nominated for so many. Any of these five could win it, though, and they all looked pretty impressive art direction wise. |
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| | “The Black Dahlia” (Universal) Vilmos Zsigmond |
| | “Children of Men” (Universal) Emmanuel Lubezki |
| | “The Illusionist” (Yari Film Group) Dick Pope |
| X | “Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse) Guillermo Navarro |
| | “The Prestige” (Buena Vista) Wally Pfister |
Explanation: Another impossible category. All of these films had unique cinematography (which refers to camera use and the "look and feel" of the shots). Typically, the cinematography award goes to a best picture nominee, yet none of the best pics were nom'ed in this category. I think Pan's Labryinth will win because it had a unique vision that lent itself to the storytelling and because being nominated for Best Foreign Film is the closest thing we got. I did like the cinematography in the Illusionist though. |
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| | “Curse of the Golden Flower” (Sony Pictures Classics) Yee Chung Man |
| | “The Devil Wears Prada” (20th Century Fox) Patricia Field |
| X | “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount) Sharen Davis |
| | “Marie Antoinette” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Milena Canonero |
| | “The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) Consolata Boyle |
| Explanation: Costume Design awards typically go to period pieces, films of ethnic origin, and musicals. Dreamgirls is 2 out of 3. |
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| | “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Alejandro González Iñárritu |
| X | “The Departed” (Warner Bros.) Martin Scorsese |
| | “Letters from Iwo Jima” (Warner Bros.) Clint Eastwood |
| | “The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) Stephen Frears |
| | “United 93” (Universal and StudioCanal) Paul Greengrass |
| Explanation: This is Scorsese's year, and if he doesn't get it, it would be the worst snub to date, because he's won every other major award, including the Director's Guild. Besides, Clint has already won twice, and no one's been talking about the other three. |
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| | “Deliver Us from Evil” (Lionsgate)
A Disarming Films Production
Amy Berg and Frank Donner |
| X | “An Inconvenient Truth” (Paramount Classics and Participant Productions)
A Lawrence Bender/Laurie David Production
Davis Guggenheim |
| | “Iraq in Fragments” (Typecast Releasing)
A Typecast Pictures/Daylight Factory Production
James Longley and John Sinno |
| | “Jesus Camp” (Magnolia Pictures)
A Loki Films Production
Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady |
| | “My Country, My Country” (Zeitgeist Films)
A Praxis Films Production
Laura Poitras and Jocelyn Glatzer |
| Explanation: Again, this won all major awards for documentaries, it's received the most press, and a former vice president can accept the award. What more could one ask? |
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| | “The Blood of Yingzhou District”
A Thomas Lennon Films Production
Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon |
| X | “Recycled Life”
An Iwerks/Glad Production
Leslie Iwerks and Mike Glad |
| | “Rehearsing a Dream”
A Simon & Goodman Picture Company Production
Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon |
| | “Two Hands”
A Crazy Boat Pictures Production
Nathaniel Kahn and Susan Rose Behr |
| Explanation: I never get to see the shorts, there are no rules for them, and so this is a shot in the dark. |
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| | “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
Stephen Mirrione and Douglas Crise |
| | “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
Steven Rosenblum |
| | “Children of Men” (Universal)
Alex Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón |
| X | “The Departed” (Warner Bros.)
Thelma Schoonmaker |
| | “United 93” (Universal and StudioCanal)
Clare Douglas, Christopher Rouse and Richard Pearson |
| Explanation: Ok, this is long winded, but here you are. The Film Editing category has also turned into a predictor for Best Picture. Eight or nine times out of ten, these awards coincide. Absent any other major predictors, I am going to make predictions based on this. There are only two best pic noms in this category, Babel and the Departed. And I think, though everyone predicts a split, that Best Pic and Director are going to be partnered like they are more often than not (that's sincerely a guess). I think the Departed will come away with awards. The Departed has won Critics' Choice and Directors Guild. Little Miss Sunshine won SAG, and Babel won the Drama Globe. I think based on a sheer majority, Scorsese's momentum, and the fact that Sunshine isn't nominated here (and the fact that Oscar does not award best picture to quirky pictures), the Departed will take the taco. This is my best picture explanation, but it works here for editing too. |
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| | “After the Wedding” A Zentropa Entertainments 16 Production
Denmark |
| | “Days of Glory (Indigènes)” A Tessalit Production
Algeria |
| | “The Lives of Others” A Wiedemann & Berg Production
Germany |
| X | “Pan’s Labyrinth” A Tequila Gang/Esperanto Filmoj/Estudios Picasso Production
Mexico |
| | “Water” A Hamilton-Mehta Production
Canada |
| Explanation: This has the most buzz and momentum and was nominated for a total of six awards; plus it's the only foreign language film with popular appeal (I know people who have actually gone to see it who normally don't get into subtitled pictures). |
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| | “Apocalypto” (Buena Vista) Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano |
| | “Click” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Kazuhiro Tsuji and Bill Corso |
| X | “Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse) David Marti and Montse Ribe |
| Explanation: This is a guess, but I think Pan will win when it can based on its 6 total nominations. |
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| | “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Gustavo Santaolalla |
| | “The Good German” (Warner Bros.) Thomas Newman |
| | “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight) Philip Glass |
| X | “Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse) Javier Navarrete |
| | “The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada) Alexandre Desplat |
| Explanation: I really have no idea here. I can see any of these winning because none of won before (and some weren't even nominated). I'm favoring the quantity of nominations. |
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| | “I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth”
(Paramount Classics and Participant Productions)
Music and Lyric by Melissa Etheridge |
| X | “Listen” from “Dreamgirls”
(DreamWorks and Paramount)
Music by Henry Krieger and Scott Cutler
Lyric by Anne Preven |
| | “Love You I Do” from “Dreamgirls”
(DreamWorks and Paramount)
Music by Henry Krieger
Lyric by Siedah Garrett |
| | “Our Town” from “Cars”
(Buena Vista)
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman |
| | “Patience” from “Dreamgirls”
(DreamWorks and Paramount)
Music by Henry Krieger
Lyric by Willie Reale |
| Explanation: Well, since Dreamgirls has three out of five of the noms, it would be pretty silly if it didn't win any of them (especially since it's a musical). "Listen" is the only song of the three that's been nominated (or won) in other awards shows, including the Globes and Critics Choice. |
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| | “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
An Anonymous Content/Zeta Film/Central Films Production
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Jon Kilik and Steve Golin, Producers |
| X | “The Departed” (Warner Bros.)
A Warner Bros. Pictures Production
Nominees to be determined |
| | “Letters from Iwo Jima” (Warner Bros.)
A DreamWorks Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures Production
Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Robert Lorenz, Producers |
| | “Little Miss Sunshine” (Fox Searchlight)
A Big Beach/Bona Fide Production
Nominees to be determined |
| | “The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada)
A Granada Production
Andy Harries, Christine Langan and Tracey Seaward, Producers |
| Explanation: Such a tough category this year, and I'm probably going to be wrong. If Little Miss Sunshine got it, I wouldn't be sad, but Oscar never gives Best Pics to comedies or quirky indie pics like that. It just doesn't happen. Maybe this year, they'll break the mold, but I don't believe it. Best Pic is usually awarded to the picture with the most nominations; however, that picture this year is Dreamgirls, which, as you can see, was snubbed big time in the biggie award. I really think the Departed might take it for reasons I stated above. I fully expect to be wrong, but I don't have anything else to go on because I didn't get to see any of them! Except one. Poo. |
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| | “The Danish Poet” (National Film Board of Canada)
A Mikrofilm and National Film Board of Canada Production
Torill Kove |
| X | “Lifted” (Buena Vista)
A Pixar Animation Studios Production
Gary Rydstrom |
| | “The Little Matchgirl” (Buena Vista)
A Walt Disney Pictures Production
Roger Allers and Don Hahn |
| | “Maestro” (Szimplafilm)
A Kedd Production
Geza M. Toth |
| | “No Time for Nuts” (20th Century Fox)
A Blue Sky Studios Production
Chris Renaud and Michael Thurmeier |
| Explanation: Pixar shorts have always won in the past. Pixar's great! |
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| | “Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)”
A Peliculas Pendelton and Tus Ojos Production
Javier Fesser and Luis Manso |
| | “Éramos Pocos (One Too Many)” (Kimuak)
An Altube Filmeak Production
Borja Cobeaga |
| | “Helmer & Son”
A Nordisk Film Production
Soren Pilmark and Kim Magnusson |
| | “The Saviour” (Australian Film Television and Radio School)
An Australian Film Television and Radio School Production
Peter Templeman and Stuart Parkyn |
| X | “West Bank Story”
An Ari Sandel, Pascal Vaguelsy, Amy Kim, Ravi Malhotra and Ashley Jordan Production
Ari Sandel |
| Explanation: It's a complete stab, but it's got relevant political subject matter. Who knows? |
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| | “Apocalypto” (Buena Vista)
Sean McCormack and Kami Asgar |
| | “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
Lon Bender |
| X | “Flags of Our Fathers” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by Paramount)
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman |
| | “Letters from Iwo Jima” (Warner Bros.)
Alan Robert Murray |
| | “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (Buena Vista)
Christopher Boyes and George Watters II |
| Explanation: Another tough one to call because the sound awards like movies with big battles, and that's true of all except Blood Diamond. Since editing and mixing usually go together, I'm giving it to this one, but I will probably be wrong. |
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| | “Apocalypto” (Buena Vista)
Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and Fernando Camara |
| | “Blood Diamond” (Warner Bros.)
Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ivan Sharrock |
| | “Dreamgirls” (DreamWorks and Paramount)
Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer and Willie Burton |
| X | “Flags of Our Fathers” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by Paramount)
John Reitz, Dave Campbell, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin |
| | “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (Buena Vista)
Paul Massey, Christopher Boyes and Lee Orloff |
| Explanation: Apocalypto might win, but I don't know....Mel Gibson was associated with it. |
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| X | “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (Buena Vista)
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and Allen Hall |
| | “Poseidon” (Warner Bros.)
Boyd Shermis, Kim Libreri, Chaz Jarrett and John Frazier |
| | “Superman Returns” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Stetson, Neil Corbould, Richard R. Hoover and Jon Thum |
| Explanation: All had great visuals, but Pirates is going to take it because it had the most complicated and most imaginary VFX. Krakens and Davy Jones and weird under the sea things versus the Man of Steel (impressive, but some of it still looked fake to me) and big water-type adventures. |
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| | “Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” (20th Century Fox)
Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Peter Baynham & Dan Mazer
Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Peter Baynham & Anthony Hines & Todd Phillips |
| X | “Children of Men” (Universal)
Screenplay by Alfonso Cuarón & Timothy J. Sexton and David Arata and Mark Fergus & Hawk Ostby |
| | “The Departed” (Warner Bros.)
Screenplay by William Monahan |
| | “Little Children” (New Line)
Screenplay by Todd Field & Tom Perrotta |
| | “Notes on a Scandal” (Fox Searchlight)
Screenplay by Patrick Marber |
| Explanation: I have none. I know a lot of people talking about this movie, so that might give it a push. Frankly, all five of these could win (and none have won before). |
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| | “Babel” (Paramount and Paramount Vantage)
Written by Guillermo Arriaga |
| | “Letters from Iwo Jima” (Warner Bros.)
Screenplay by Iris Yamashita
Story by Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis |
| X | “Little Miss Sunshine” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Michael Arndt |
| | “Pan’s Labyrinth” (Picturehouse)
Written by Guillermo del Toro |
| | “The Queen” (Miramax, Pathé and Granada)
Written by Peter Morgan |
Explanation: I really think if Sunshine wins anything, it will be this award. It's quirky, indie, run the gamut of emotions spirit will win out here.
Ok, I expect to be really wrong, but it's up to you to put your two cents in. The broadcast is tonight at 8 on ABC (exclusive of all the preshows), and Ellen DeGeneres is the host. Have fun!