pippin06
Posts 453
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3/5/2006 10:49 AM
posted awhile ago
Predictions and commentary 2006
Well, tonight's the night! And I'm late starting this group. Here's my stab at predictions this year. Keep in mind that these are all guesses because I've only seen a scant few of them. Scant, I tell you. So, a lot of these are wild shots in the dark. Do you agree or disagree?
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Diana Ossana, James
Schamus
Capote (2005) - Caroline Baron, William Vince, Michael
Ohoven
Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis, Cathy Schulman
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - Grant Heslov
Munich (2005) - Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy,
Barry Mendel
PREDICTION: Brokeback Mountain. It's got all of the buzz, it's won most of the awards, and I hesitate to predict a split this year. Ang Lee is a shoo-in, make no mistake. It takes chances, it's an emotional roller coaster, it's a big movie with an indie spirit, it has some controversy to it, it's everything Oscar loves. I'd be surprised (although happily) if this didn't win.
WHY I HOPE I'M WRONG: I haven't seen BM, so don't get me wrong, but the best picture of the year to me, hands down, is Crash. I have never seen a more socially relevant film that has touched so many people, is worth repeat views, and generally garners such respect. There has been lots of buzz, and it did win the SAG equivalent of Best Picture, but I don't think it's got enough steam to overcome the Academy voters. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.
Best Performance by an Actor in a
Leading Role
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote (2005)
Terrence Howard for Hustle & Flow (2005)
Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain (2005)
Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line (2005)
David Strathairn for Good Night, and Good Luck.
(2005)
PREDICTION: Philip Seymour Hoffman. He has the most buzz. has won practically all of the awards, has been nominated a few times before without wins, and portrays an extremely eccentric man with odd speech affectations.
Best Performance by an Actress in a
Leading Role
Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005)
Felicity Huffman for Transamerica (2005)
Keira Knightley for Pride & Prejudice (2005)
Charlize Theron for North Country (2005)
Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line (2005)
PREDICTION: Reese Witherspoon. Tough one to call, but she's got the buzz and several prior awards for playing June Carter Cash to a tee. Her toughest contention is Felicity Huffman for playing a transgendered father turned mother. Prior awards are split between the two, but I think they're going to go with Reese, they tend to favor biopic portrayals. They might give it to Felicity, though, because of the sheer toughness of her role.
Best Performance by an Actor in a
Supporting Role
George Clooney for Syriana (2005)
Matt Dillon for Crash (2004)
Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man (2005)
Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain (2005)
William Hurt for A History of Violence (2005)
PREDICTION: George Clooney. He's nominated for three Oscars, but I think he's only going to win one, and I think it's going to be this one. The prior awards are kind of all over the place, but I've heard nothing but buzz about Syriana. While William Hurt has no chance, I'll tell you that he made that disturbing little picture. I don't think Jake will win if Heath's not going to win. Matt Dillon has a chance as does Paul Giamatti, but I don't believe this is their year.
Best Performance by an Actress in a
Supporting Role
Amy Adams for Junebug (2005)
Catherine Keener for Capote (2005)
Frances McDormand for North Country (2005)
Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener (2005)
Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain (2005)
PREDICTION: Rachel Weisz. All of the pre-show buzz has called for her to win the award.
Best Achievement in Directing
George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck.
(2005)
Paul Haggis for Crash (2004)
Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain (2005)
Bennett Miller for Capote (2005)
Steven Spielberg for Munich (2005)
PREDICTION: Ang Lee. He's a shoo-in, even if his movie doesn't win. He's an Oscar darling. Spielberg's won twice already (an insurmountable hurdle until he's much older), Haggis doesn't have the momentum, this is the least likely of Clooney's three categories (when up against Mr. Lee), and Miller is the fringe nominee (i.e. he has the least chance of winning).
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly
for the Screen
Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - George Clooney,
Grant Heslov
Match Point (2005) - Woody Allen
The Squid and the Whale (2005) - Noah Baumbach
Syriana (2005) - Stephen Gaghan
PREDICTION: Crash. I think it will win here if it doesn't win Best Picture. It's toughest contention is Good Night, and Good Luck.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on
Material Previously Produced or Published
Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Larry McMurtry,
Diana Ossana
Capote (2005) - Dan Futterman
The Constant Gardener (2005) - Jeffrey Caine
A History of Violence (2005) - Josh Olson
Munich (2005) - Tony Kushner, Eric Roth
PREDICTION: Brokeback Mountain. I'd be surprised if it were anything else.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Batman Begins (2005) - Wally Pfister
Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Rodrigo Prieto
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - Robert Elswit
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Dion Beebe
The New World (2005) - Emmanuel Lubezki
PREDICTION: Brokeback Mountain. Cinematography 9 times out of 10 goes to a best picture nominee, which eliminates all but two. This had the better.
Best Achievement in Editing
Cinderella Man (2005) - Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
The Constant Gardener (2005) - Claire Simpson
Crash (2004) - Hughes Winborne
Munich (2005) - Michael Kahn
Walk the Line (2005) - Michael McCusker
PREDICTION: Crash. I almost think it's a shoo-in by the sheer nature of the film.
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - James D. Bissell,
Jan Pascale
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) -
Stuart Craig, Stephanie McMillan
King Kong (2005) - Grant Major, Dan Hennah,
Simon Bright
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - John Myhre,
Gretchen Rau
Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Sarah Greenwood, Katie
Spencer
PREDICTION: Memoirs of a Geisha. Art Direction refers to properties and set design. I think the geographical and period milieu of Memoirs makes it a favorite.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (2005) -
Gabriella Pescucci
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Colleen Atwood
Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005) - Sandy Powell
Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Jacqueline Durran
Walk the Line (2005) - Arianne Phillips
PREDICTION: Memoirs of a Geisha. Costume Design favors period pictures, so Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is out. I think the colors and cultural backdrop of Geisha make it an easy choice.
Best Achievement in Music Written for
Motion Pictures, Original Score
Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Gustavo Santaolalla
The Constant Gardener (2005) - Alberto Iglesias
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - John Williams
Munich (2005) - John Williams
Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Dario Marianelli
PREDICTION: Memoirs of a Geisha. John's nominated twice this year! Maybe that means he'll win. So, I pick this one, but it's a total stab in the dark guess.
Best Achievement in Music Written for
Motion Pictures, Original Song
Hustle & Flow (2005) - Jordan Houston, Cedric
Coleman, Paul Beauregard (“It’s Hard Out Here
For a Pimp”)
Crash (2004) - Michael Becker, Kathleen York
(“In the Deep”)
Transamerica (2005) - Dolly Parton (“Travelin’ Thru”)
PREDICTION: Crash. Mostly a guess, but I think Oscar likes the poignant songs with some popular momentum.
Best Achievement in Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and
the Wardrobe (2005) - Howard Berger, Tami Lane
Cinderella Man (2005) - David LeRoy Anderson,
Lance Anderson
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
- Dave Elsey, Annette Miles
PREDICTION: Narnia. Think the White Witch versus Emperor Palpatine versus anything in Cinderella Man.
Best Achievement in Sound
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and
the Wardrobe (2005) - Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic,
Tony Johnson
King Kong (2005) - Christopher Boyes, Michael
Semanick, Michael Hedges, Hammond Peek
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Kevin O’Connell, Greg P.
Russell, Rick Kline, John Pritchett
Walk the Line (2005) - Paul Massey, Doug Hemphill,
Peter F. Kurland
War of the Worlds (2005) - Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer,
Ron Judkins
PREDICTION: King Kong. I have a feeling the big ape will take this one, but just a guess. The category favors movies with violence. I'd give it to War of the Worlds next.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
King Kong (2005) - Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Wylie Stateman
War of the Worlds (2005) - Richard King
PREDICTION: King Kong.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and
the Wardrobe (2005) - Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer,
Jim Berney, Scott Farrar
King Kong (2005) - Joe Letteri, Brian Van’t Hul,
Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor
War of the Worlds (2005) - Pablo Helman, Dennis
Muren, Randy Dutra, Daniel Sudick
PREDICTION: Narnia. I'm favoring the pure fantasy, though this category is a tossup.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Corpse Bride (2005) - Tim Burton, Mike Johnson
Hauru no ugoku shiro (2004) - Hayao Miyazaki
Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
(2005) - Steve Box, Nick Park
PREDICTION: Wallace & Gromit. I think this is pretty much a shoo-in.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Bestia nel cuore, La (2005) - Cristina Comencini (Italy)
Joyeux Noël (2005) - Christian Carion (France)
Paradise Now (2005) - Hany Abu-Assad (Palestine)
Sophie Scholl - Die letzten Tage (2005) -
Marc Rothemund (Germany)
Tsotsi (2005) - Gavin Hood (South Africa)
PREDICTION: Paradise Now. Just a guess.
Best Documentary, Features
Darwin’s Nightmare (2004) - Hubert Sauper
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room (2005) -
Alex Gibney, Jason Kliot
Marche de l’empereur, La (2005) - Luc Jacquet,
Yves Darondeau
Murderball (2005) - Henry Alex Rubin, Dana
Adam Shapiro
Street Fight (2005) - Marshall Curry
PREDICTION: Murderball. Though Enron is a contender.
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
God Sleeps in Rwanda (2005) - Kimberlee Acquaro,
Stacy Sherman
A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin
(2005) - Corinne Marrinan, Eric Simonson
The Life of Kevin Carter (2004) - Dan Krauss
Mushroom Club, The (2005) - Steven Okazaki
PREDICTION: Kevin Carter. Just a guess.
Best Short Film, Animated
Badgered (2005) - Sharon Colman
The Moon and the Son (2005) - John Canemaker,
Peggy Stern
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper
Morello (2005) - Anthony Lucas
9 (2005) - Shane Acker
One Man Band (2005) - Mark Andrews, Andrew
Jimenez
PREDICTION: 9. Just a guess.
Best Short Film, Live Action
Ausreißer (2004) - Ulrike Grote
Cashback (2004) - Sean Ellis, Lene Bausager
Síðasti bærinn í dalnum (2004) - Rúnar Rúnarsson,
Þórir Snær Sigurjónsson
Our Time Is Up (2004) - Rob Pearlstein, Pia Clemente
Six Shooter (2005) - Martin McDonagh
PREDICTION: Our Time Is Up. Just a guess.
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