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Description: Year after year, movie lovers and non movie lovers alike discuss ad nauseum the fate of films nominated for the utmost honor, the Academy Award. Some people watch it for the fashion. Some people watch for the haute couture. Some people watch for their fill of celebrity sightings. If you are a member of this group, you love everything about the Super Bowl of movies, especially the movies themselves! You love to make predictions, guess at the politics, discuss and dissect who should have been nominated and who should have won...or, you're just an avid movie lover that likes to pay attention. Come join the group!
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Predictions and Commentary, 2008 
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pippin06
pippin06
Posts 446

Predictions and Commentary, 2008



In this snowy, cold weather (even in the South, am I right?), we Oscarphiles have a list of nominations to needlessly overanalyze at will.  I know I am excited!  The Oscar noms are out and listed in our group.

This conversation is devoted ONLY to commentary about the nominees and winners and predictions if you so choose.  Below is a convenient list for you to highlight and predict at will.  In this conversation, talk about snubs and likely winners and likely losers and anything related to the actual nominees and the broadcast.

Any Oscar-related buzz, including the depressing possibility that the Oscars will suck if the writers continue to strike?  Please discuss it in the buzz thread entitled "It's Upon Us Again - Oscar Buzz and Awards Season 2008."  Thanks, y'all.

As always, I will not be making predictions until next month, closer to the (if it's even on anymore) broadcast, though I will be perusing the list soon and discussing some notable snubs and surprise nominees.

In the meantime, just wanted to note that several movies, particularly in the shorts and documentary categories, are not in Spout's database, so they have not been listed.  There are actually quite a few, so just read the list below.

Without further adieu, here is the list from www.oscars.org.  Predict away!

Performance by an actor in a leading role
 George Clooney in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
 Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
 Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
(DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
 Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah” (Warner Independent)
 Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises” (Focus Features)
 
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
 Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.)
 Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
 Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War” (Universal)
 Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
 Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
 
Performance by an actress in a leading role
 Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal)
 Julie Christie in “Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
 Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
 Laura Linney in “The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
 Ellen Page in “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
 
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
 Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein Company)
 Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” (Universal)
 Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement” (Focus Features)
 Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone” (Miramax)
 Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
 
Best animated feature film of the year
 Persepolis” (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
 Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Brad Bird
 Surf's Up” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ash Brannon and Chris Buck
 
Achievement in art direction
 American Gangster” (Universal)
Art Direction: Arthur Max
Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
 Atonement” (Focus Features)
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
 The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
Art Direction: Dennis Gassner
Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
 Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti
Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Art Direction: Jack Fisk
Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
 
Achievement in cinematography
 The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.) Roger Deakins
 Atonement” (Focus Features) Seamus McGarvey
 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Janusz Kaminski
 No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roger Deakins
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Robert Elswit
 
Achievement in costume design
 Across the Universe” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Albert Wolsky
 Atonement” (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
 Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal) Alexandra Byrne
 La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Marit Allen
 Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Colleen Atwood
 
Achievement in directing
 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Julian Schnabel
 Juno” (Fox Searchlight) Jason Reitman
 Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) Tony Gilroy
 No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Paul Thomas Anderson
 
Best documentary feature
 No End in Sight” (Magnolia Pictures)
A Representational Pictures Production
Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
 Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience” (The Documentary Group)
A Documentary Group Production
Richard E. Robbins
 Sicko” (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company)
A Dog Eat Dog Films Production
Michael Moore and Meghan O’Hara
 Taxi to the Dark Side” (THINKFilm)
An X-Ray Production
Alex Gibney and Eva Orner
 War/Dance” (THINKFilm)
A Shine Global and Fine Films Production
Andrea Nix Fine and Sean Fine
 
Best documentary short subject
 Freeheld
A Lieutenant Films Production
Cynthia Wade and Vanessa Roth
 La Corona (The Crown)
A Runaway Films and Vega Films Production
Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
 Salim Baba
A Ropa Vieja Films and Paradox Smoke Production
Tim Sternberg and Francisco Bello
 Sari’s Mother” (Cinema Guild)
A Daylight Factory Production
James Longley
 
Achievement in film editing
 The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal) Christopher Rouse
 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Juliette Welfling
 Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment) Jay Cassidy
 No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Dylan Tichenor
 
Best foreign language film of the year
 Beaufort” A Metro Communications, Movie Plus Production
Israel
 The Counterfeiters” An Aichholzer Filmproduktion, Magnolia Filmproduktion Production
Austria
 Katyń” An Akson Studio Production
Poland
 Mongol” A Eurasia Film Production
Kazakhstan
 12” A Three T Production
Russia
 
Achievement in makeup
 La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
 Norbit” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount) Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney) Ve Neill and Martin Samuel
 
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
 Atonement” (Focus Features) Dario Marianelli
 The Kite Runner” (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics) Alberto Iglesias
 Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) James Newton Howard
 Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
 3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate) Marco Beltrami
 
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
 Falling Slowly” from “Once”
(Fox Searchlight)
Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
 Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
 Raise It Up” from “August Rush”
(Warner Bros.)
Nominees to be determined
 So Close” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
 That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
 
Best motion picture of the year
 Atonement” (Focus Features)
A Working Title Production
Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
 Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
A Dancing Elk Pictures, LLC Production
Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
 Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
A Clayton Productions, LLC Production
Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent, Producers
 No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production
Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production
JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers
 
Best animated short film
 I Met the Walrus
A Kids & Explosions Production
Josh Raskin
 Madame Tutli-Putli” (National Film Board of Canada)
A National Film Board of Canada Production
Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
 Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)” (Premium Films)
A BUF Compagnie Production
Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
 My Love (Moya Lyubov)” (Channel One Russia)
A Dago-Film Studio, Channel One Russia and Dentsu Tec Production
Alexander Petrov
 Peter & the Wolf” (BreakThru Films)
A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production
Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman
 
Best live action short film
 At Night
A Zentropa Entertainments 10 Production
Christian E. Christiansen and Louise Vesth
 Il Supplente (The Substitute)” (Sky Cinema Italia)
A Frame by Frame Italia Production
Andrea Jublin
 Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)” (Premium Films)
A Karé Production
Philippe Pollet-Villard
 Tanghi Argentini” (Premium Films)
An Another Dimension of an Idea Production
Guido Thys and Anja Daelemans
 The Tonto Woman
A Knucklehead, Little Mo and Rose Hackney Barber Production
Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown
 
Achievement in sound editing
 The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal)
Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
 No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Skip Lievsay
 Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Randy Thom and Michael Silvers
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Matthew Wood
 Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins
 
Achievement in sound mixing
 The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal)
Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
 No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
 Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
 3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate)
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
 Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin
 
Achievement in visual effects
 The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney)
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier
 Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier
 
Adapted screenplay
 Atonement” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
 Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
Written by Sarah Polley
 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn)
Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
 No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
 
Original screenplay
 Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Diablo Cody
 Lars and the Real Girl” (MGM)
Written by Nancy Oliver
 Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Written by Tony Gilroy
 Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Screenplay by Brad Bird
Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
 The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Tamara Jenkins



     

            
pippin06
pippin06
Posts 446

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2008



To start off the conversation about snubbery, here is an article from Saturday's Washington Post centered on the shortlist for foreign language film, which had a variety of omissions of previous award-show favorites, including 4 Months, 3 Days, 2 Nights and Persepolis.  Foreign Languge Film is usually a hotly contested category, mainly because of the inconsistent eligibility rules and arthouse cred/interest these films generate, and the five nominees not only fail to include those shortlisted but also highly buzzed about entries such as The Kite Runner and Ang Lee's Lust, Caution.  In addition, for reasons not fully clear to me (maybe I should go review the rules), while The Diving Bell and the Butterfly has received several mainstage award noms, it did not get nominated in Foreign Language Film.  Last year, Pan's Labryinth enjoyed noms in several categories, including FLF. 

Isn't it wonderful how Oscar fails to make logical sense sometimes?  More observations to come, but if you have any reactions, please contribute!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/18/AR2008011803357.html



     
Under discussion:

Pan's Labyrinth  (2006)

Lust, Caution  (2007)

Persepolis  (2007)

The Kite Runner  (2007)

            
pippin06
pippin06
Posts 446

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2008



Here is some commentary on surprises and snubs.  A week late, but I have some time here and now.

In the Best Actor category, the surprise nomination is Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah.  He has not previously been nominated for any similar awards.  Surprising omission?  A long shot, but better than Jones was Ryan Gosling for Lars and the Real Girl; he's received several nominations (and no wins) to date.  I think prediction-wise, though, you best be looking at Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood.  He's swept them all so far.

In the Supporting Actor category, there are no real surprises or snubs.  (Think Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men come the big day, though).

In the Best Actress category, a surprise nomination for Laura Linney for The Savages (she's had no love up until now).  There are no real snubs, though, because the win will probably without doubt go to Julie Christie for Away From Her, with the other four nominations acting sort of like wild-card "it's a thrill just to be nominated" honorees.

In the Supporting Actress category, no surprises or obvious snubs, though this category is rather up in the air.

For Best Director and Best Picture, I see no surprises or obvious snubs, with the clear front runners being No Country for Old Men and the Coen brothers.

For foreign language film, see the above post.

For the technical categories: nothing really jumps out at me.  Do you see anything?

I will post a complete set of predictions closer to February 24, but in the meantime, share your predictions here!  Any agreements or disagreements to the above?



     
Under discussion:

The Savages  (2007)

Away From Her  (2006)

            
pippin06
pippin06
Posts 446

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2008



Here are my predictions this year.  Notes: I am very disconnected from this year's Oscars what with general lack of interest (I AM having one-woman conversations up in here), writers strikes making the future of the broadcast uncertain, and no time to go see any of the movies.  I'm basing my predictions on time-tested rules, buzz, and random guessing.  I'm expecting a low percentage this year.

Play along!

My predictions are marked by X's with some various commentary as to why.

pippin06:

Performance by an actor in a leading role
 George Clooney in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
 Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
(DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
 Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah” (Warner Independent)
 Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises” (Focus Features)
 Commentary: He's a shoo-in.  He's received all of the awards and praise from fellow nominees like George Clooney.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
 Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.)
 XJavier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
 Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War” (Universal)
 Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
 Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
 Commentary: He's also a shoo-in, receiving all the awards.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
 Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal)
 XJulie Christie in “Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
 Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
 Laura Linney in “The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
 Ellen Page in “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
 Commentary: Julie is a shoo-in too.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
 Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein Company)
 Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” (Universal)
 Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement” (Focus Features)
 XAmy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone” (Miramax)
 Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
 Commentary: This award is so up in the air.  Ronan is not a contender.  Cate has won gold in the same category already (The Aviator), but the fact that she's nominated twice this year might give her an edge in this, the likelier of the two categories.  She's also got the Globe.  Ruby Dee has the SAG (the usual predictor) and might be the sentimental favorite due to her age, but I think she might split the vote.with Cate  Tilda is a sleeper, a BAFTA winner, and might surprise, but I doubt she'll see the gold.  Amy won the Critics' Choice and is in a film well-received by critics and moviegoers alike.  I'm giving her the edge by plurality.
Best animated feature film of the year
 Persepolis” (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
 XRatatouille” (Walt Disney) Brad Bird
 Surf's Up” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ash Brannon and Chris Buck
 Commentary: This is Pixar's guaranteed comeback after the Cars snub - the other films don't have a chance, and if they do, someone at the Academy hates Pixar.
Achievement in art direction
 American Gangster” (Universal)
Art Direction: Arthur Max
Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
 Atonement” (Focus Features)
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
 The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
Art Direction: Dennis Gassner
Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
 Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti
Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
 XThere Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Art Direction: Jack Fisk
Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
 Commentary: Art Directors liked it, it's got a best picture nomination, it's a period picture...so many factors favor it.  It would be cool if Sweeney Todd won, though, because that was some excellent (and freaky) art direction.
Achievement in cinematography
 The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.) Roger Deakins
 Atonement” (Focus Features) Seamus McGarvey
 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Janusz Kaminski
 XNo Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roger Deakins
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Robert Elswit
 Commentary: This category is usually nominated to the best picture category, though that has been less true in recent years.  It also likes outdoorsy camera work.  I'm just guessing here.
Achievement in costume design
 Across the Universe” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Albert Wolsky
 Atonement” (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
 XElizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal) Alexandra Byrne
 La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Marit Allen
 Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Colleen Atwood
 Commentary: It's a period picture involving the time when the monarch was into forbidding wigs and gigantic dresses.   It would be cool if Sweeney Todd won for its grotesque caricaturish clothing.
Achievement in directing
 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Julian Schnabel
 Juno” (Fox Searchlight) Jason Reitman
 Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) Tony Gilroy
 XNo Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Paul Thomas Anderson
 Commentary: I think this is the Coen brothers' Cinderella year, unless they inherit Scorsese's curse.  There will be no split, though.  They've won the DGA, PGA, and a whole lotta love from the general public.
Best documentary feature
 No End in Sight” (Magnolia Pictures)
A Representational Pictures Production
Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
 Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience” (The Documentary Group)
A Documentary Group Production
Richard E. Robbins
 XSicko” (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company)
A Dog Eat Dog Films Production
Michael Moore and Meghan O’Hara
 Taxi to the Dark Side” (THINKFilm)
An X-Ray Production
Alex Gibney and Eva Orner
 War/Dance” (THINKFilm)
A Shine Global and Fine Films Production
Andrea Nix Fine and Sean Fine
 Commentary: Oscar likes Mike and controversy.  I would be personally interested to hear what he might say this time.
Best documentary short subject
 XFreeheld
A Lieutenant Films Production
Cynthia Wade and Vanessa Roth
 La Corona (The Crown)
A Runaway Films and Vega Films Production
Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
 Salim Baba
A Ropa Vieja Films and Paradox Smoke Production
Tim Sternberg and Francisco Bello
 Sari’s Mother” (Cinema Guild)
A Daylight Factory Production
James Longley
 Commentary: Pure shot in the dark.  I never see the shorts.
Achievement in film editing
 The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal) Christopher Rouse
 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Juliette Welfling
 Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment) Jay Cassidy
 XNo Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Dylan Tichenor
 Commentary: This category is married to Best Picture; they predict each other most years; so it's a good bet.
Best foreign language film of the year
 Beaufort” A Metro Communications, Movie Plus Production
Israel
 XThe Counterfeiters” An Aichholzer Filmproduktion, Magnolia Filmproduktion Production
Austria
 Katyń” An Akson Studio Production
Poland
 Mongol” A Eurasia Film Production
Kazakhstan
 12” A Three T Production
Russia
 Commentary: Since the obvious choices weren't given love in this category, I picked the one I've even heard of.  I expect to be wrong.
Achievement in makeup
 La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
 Norbit” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount) Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
 XPirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney) Ve Neill and Martin Samuel
 Commentary: I'm favoring Keith Richards' eyeliner here.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
 XAtonement” (Focus Features) Dario Marianelli
 The Kite Runner” (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics) Alberto Iglesias
 Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) James Newton Howard
 Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
 3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate) Marco Beltrami
 Commentary: It's won prior awards in this category, and it's a moving score for a moving picture.  That usually helps.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
 XFalling Slowly” from “Once”
(Fox Searchlight)
Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
 Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
 Raise It Up” from “August Rush”
(Warner Bros.)
Nominees to be determined
 So Close” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
 That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
 Commentary: I'm 90% sure Once will get this award - it's been the subject of much of the accolades this film has received.
Best motion picture of the year
 Atonement” (Focus Features)
A Working Title Production
Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
 Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
A Dancing Elk Pictures, LLC Production
Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
 Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
A Clayton Productions, LLC Production
Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent, Producers
 XNo Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production
Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production
JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers
 Commentary: It's the clear front runner.
Best animated short film
 XI Met the Walrus
A Kids & Explosions Production
Josh Raskin
 Madame Tutli-Putli” (National Film Board of Canada)
A National Film Board of Canada Production
Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
 Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)” (Premium Films)
A BUF Compagnie Production
Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
 My Love (Moya Lyubov)” (Channel One Russia)
A Dago-Film Studio, Channel One Russia and Dentsu Tec Production
Alexander Petrov
 Peter & the Wolf” (BreakThru Films)
A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production
Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman
 Commentary: I picked the short involving the Beatlesy topic, given the mass interest in Across the Universe
Best live action short film
 At Night
A Zentropa Entertainments 10 Production
Christian E. Christiansen and Louise Vesth
 XIl Supplente (The Substitute)” (Sky Cinema Italia)
A Frame by Frame Italia Production
Andrea Jublin
 Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)” (Premium Films)
A Karé Production
Philippe Pollet-Villard
 Tanghi Argentini” (Premium Films)
An Another Dimension of an Idea Production
Guido Thys and Anja Daelemans
 The Tonto Woman
A Knucklehead, Little Mo and Rose Hackney Barber Production
Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown
 Commentary: I've heard of this one.
Achievement in sound editing
 The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal)
Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
 No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Skip Lievsay
 XRatatouille” (Walt Disney)
Randy Thom and Michael Silvers
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Matthew Wood
 Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins
 Commentary: Sound likes battles and loud noises.  The only qualifyig movie is Transformers, and that's not going to win.  I think rat noises are going to be popular this year.
Achievement in sound mixing
 The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal)
Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
 Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
 3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate)
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
 Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin
 Commentary: I got nothing.
Achievement in visual effects
 The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
 XPirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney)
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier
 Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier
 Commentary: The pirates have won this category before and for good reason.  Several Jack Sparrows has to count for something.
Adapted screenplay
 XAtonement” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
 Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
Written by Sarah Polley
 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn)
Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
 No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
 There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
 Commentary: The book and the movie have been widely discussed - I think this is the love Atonement will get.
Original screenplay
 XJuno” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Diablo Cody
 Lars and the Real Girl” (MGM)
Written by Nancy Oliver
 Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Written by Tony Gilroy
 Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Screenplay by Brad Bird
Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
 The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Tamara Jenkins

Commentary: Juno, the little engine that could (the not-so-indie indie), is this year's Little Miss Sunshine - and the script was pretty original.

Let the games begin!



     

            
pippin06
pippin06
Posts 446

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2008



Here we go!  Real-time commentary on the Oscars!  What's your take?

Actual winners are denoted by "O's." 

pippin06:

pippin06:

Performance by an actor in a leading role
 George Clooney in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
X/ODaniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
 Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
(DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
 Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah” (Warner Independent)
 Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises” (Focus Features)

 Commentary: He's a shoo-in.  He's received all of the awards and praise from fellow nominees like George Clooney.

Commentary: That makes him a double honoree.  He won't win again.  At least not until he's old.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
 Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.)
 X/OJavier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
 Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War” (Universal)
 Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
 Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)

 Commentary: He's also a shoo-in, receiving all the awards.

Commentary: Was there ever any doubt?

Performance by an actress in a leading role
 Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal)
 XJulie Christie in “Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
 OMarion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
 Laura Linney in “The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
 Ellen Page in “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)

 Commentary: Julie is a shoo-in too.

Commentary: WHOA! Snub alert much?  Marion won the Globe, that much is true, but Julie had all the momentum.  Julie has won in the past, but this is really screwing my percentage!  Well, good for Marion.  Oscar likes to throw curves.  This is the curve of the night.  Still, this would be an official snub when Julie had all the prior major awards, including the drama Globe.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
 Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein Company)
 Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” (Universal)
 Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement” (Focus Features)
 XAmy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone” (Miramax)
 OTilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)

 Commentary: This award is so up in the air.  Ronan is not a contender.  Cate has won gold in the same category already (The Aviator), but the fact that she's nominated twice this year might give her an edge in this, the likelier of the two categories.  She's also got the Globe.  Ruby Dee has the SAG (the usual predictor) and might be the sentimental favorite due to her age, but I think she might split the vote.with Cate  Tilda is a sleeper, a BAFTA winner, and might surprise, but I doubt she'll see the gold.  Amy won the Critics' Choice and is in a film well-received by critics and moviegoers alike.  I'm giving her the edge by plurality.

Commentary: Wow!  Perhaps, the Academy went with the sleeper to make sure everyone got a turn, except the poor little girl (she has plenty of time).  I doubt she was on too many prediction lists, so let's all praise the White Witch.  Incidentally, I've heard this movie was excellent.  I haven't had a chance to see it and can't wait to do so.

Best animated feature film of the year
 Persepolis” (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
 X/ORatatouille” (Walt Disney) Brad Bird