It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar!

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2008

Risselada — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 19:17:09 GMT

I loved watching the Coens go up for their award. Their demeanor is so perfect. Completely calm and removed. They are really the coolest.

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2008

pippin06 — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 04:50:45 GMT

Here we go! Real-time commentary on the Oscars! What's your take?

Actual winners are denoted by "O's."

pippin06:

pippin06:

Performance by an actor in a leading role
George Clooney in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
X/O Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
(DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah” (Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises” (Focus Features)
Commentary: He's a shoo-in. He's received all of the awards and praise from fellow nominees like George Clooney.
Commentary: That makes him a double honoree. He won't win again. At least not until he's old.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.)
X/O Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War” (Universal)
Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Commentary: He's also a shoo-in, receiving all the awards.
Commentary: Was there ever any doubt?
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal)
X Julie Christie in “Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
O Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
Laura Linney in “The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
Ellen Page in “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
Commentary: Julie is a shoo-in too.
Commentary: WHOA! Snub alert much? Marion won the Globe, that much is true, but Julie had all the momentum. Julie has won in the past, but this is really screwing my percentage! Well, good for Marion. Oscar likes to throw curves. This is the curve of the night. Still, this would be an official snub when Julie had all the prior major awards, including the drama Globe.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein Company)
Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” (Universal)
Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement” (Focus Features)
X Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone” (Miramax)
O Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Commentary: This award is so up in the air. Ronan is not a contender. Cate has won gold in the same category already (The Aviator), but the fact that she's nominated twice this year might give her an edge in this, the likelier of the two categories. She's also got the Globe. Ruby Dee has the SAG (the usual predictor) and might be the sentimental favorite due to her age, but I think she might split the vote.with Cate Tilda is a sleeper, a BAFTA winner, and might surprise, but I doubt she'll see the gold. Amy won the Critics' Choice and is in a film well-received by critics and moviegoers alike. I'm giving her the edge by plurality.
Commentary: Wow! Perhaps, the Academy went with the sleeper to make sure everyone got a turn, except the poor little girl (she has plenty of time). I doubt she was on too many prediction lists, so let's all praise the White Witch. Incidentally, I've heard this movie was excellent. I haven't had a chance to see it and can't wait to do so.
Best animated feature film of the year
“Persepolis” (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
X/O “Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Brad Bird
“Surf's Up” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ash Brannon and Chris Buck
Commentary: This is Pixar's guaranteed comeback after the Cars snub - the other films don't have a chance, and if they do, someone at the Academy hates Pixar.
Commentary: That's more like it.
Achievement in art direction
“American Gangster” (Universal)
Art Direction: Arthur Max
Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
“Atonement” (Focus Features)
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
Art Direction: Dennis Gassner
Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
O “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti
Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
X “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Art Direction: Jack Fisk
Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
Commentary: Art Directors liked it, it's got a best picture nomination, it's a period picture...so many factors favor it. It would be cool if Sweeney Todd won, though, because that was some excellent (and freaky) art direction.
Commentary: Another surpise but a pleasant one! I loved the art direction in Sweeney. I'm surprised but happy.
Achievement in cinematography
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.) Roger Deakins
“Atonement” (Focus Features) Seamus McGarvey
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Janusz Kaminski
X “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roger Deakins
O “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Robert Elswit
Commentary: This category is usually nominated to the best picture category, though that has been less true in recent years. It also likes outdoorsy camera work. I'm just guessing here.
Commentary: The rule holds true. I just picked the wrong movie.
Achievement in costume design
“Across the Universe” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Albert Wolsky
“Atonement” (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
X/O “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal) Alexandra Byrne
“La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Marit Allen
“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Colleen Atwood
Commentary: It's a period picture involving the time when the monarch was into forbidding wigs and gigantic dresses. It would be cool if Sweeney Todd won for its grotesque caricaturish clothing.
Commentary: Woo hoo! My first one was right! It's got all the ingredients, and the lady did have to recreate the fashion history of one the world's (and history's) most recognizable monarchs.
Achievement in directing
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Julian Schnabel
“Juno” (Fox Searchlight) Jason Reitman
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) Tony Gilroy
X/O “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Paul Thomas Anderson
Commentary: I think this is the Coen brothers' Cinderella year, unless they inherit Scorsese's curse. There will be no split, though. They've won the DGA, PGA, and a whole lotta love from the general public.
Commentary: Huzzah! They won!
Best documentary feature
“No End in Sight” (Magnolia Pictures)
A Representational Pictures Production
Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience” (The Documentary Group)
A Documentary Group Production
Richard E. Robbins
X “Sicko” (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company)
A Dog Eat Dog Films Production
Michael Moore and Meghan O’Hara
O “Taxi to the Dark Side” (THINKFilm)
An X-Ray Production
Alex Gibney and Eva Orner
“War/Dance” (THINKFilm)
A Shine Global and Fine Films Production
Andrea Nix Fine and Sean Fine
Commentary: Oscar likes Mike and controversy. I would be personally interested to hear what he might say this time.
Commentary: Better to avoid a Michael Moore acceptance speech, sure.
Best documentary short subject
X/O “Freeheld”
A Lieutenant Films Production
Cynthia Wade and Vanessa Roth
“La Corona (The Crown)”
A Runaway Films and Vega Films Production
Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
“Salim Baba”
A Ropa Vieja Films and Paradox Smoke Production
Tim Sternberg and Francisco Bello
“Sari’s Mother” (Cinema Guild)
A Daylight Factory Production
James Longley
Commentary: Pure shot in the dark. I never see the shorts.
Commentary: I usually get one shot in the dark, at least in recent years.
Achievement in film editing
O “The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal) Christopher Rouse
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Juliette Welfling
“Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment) Jay Cassidy
X “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Dylan Tichenor
Commentary: This category is married to Best Picture; they predict each other most years; so it's a good bet.
Commentary: What??? Well, it's no good as a predictor this year. I think I'm at about 20%. Oh well. Jon Stewart's subtle knock was funny, anyway.
Best foreign language film of the year
“Beaufort” A Metro Communications, Movie Plus Production
Israel
X/O “The Counterfeiters” An Aichholzer Filmproduktion, Magnolia Filmproduktion Production
Austria
“Katyń” An Akson Studio Production
Poland
“Mongol” A Eurasia Film Production
Kazakhstan
“12” A Three T Production
Russia
Commentary: Since the obvious choices weren't given love in this category, I picked the one I've even heard of. I expect to be wrong.
Commentary: I was right! My expectations are simply all off. Ok, maybe not.
Achievement in makeup
O “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
“Norbit” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount) Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
X “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney) Ve Neill and Martin Samuel
Commentary: I'm favoring Keith Richards' eyeliner here.
Commentary: I should have figured that recreating a famous person would work in the makeup category too.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
X/O “Atonement” (Focus Features) Dario Marianelli
“The Kite Runner” (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics) Alberto Iglesias
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) James Newton Howard
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
“3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate) Marco Beltrami
Commentary: It's won prior awards in this category, and it's a moving score for a moving picture. That usually helps.
Commentary: I'm making a comeback!
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
X/O “Falling Slowly” from “Once”
(Fox Searchlight)
Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
“Raise It Up” from “August Rush”
(Warner Bros.)
Nominees to be determined
“So Close” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
“That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
Commentary: I'm 90% sure Once will get this award - it's been the subject of much of the accolades this film has received.
Commentary: Told you so.
Best motion picture of the year
“Atonement” (Focus Features)
A Working Title Production
Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
“Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
A Dancing Elk Pictures, LLC Production
Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
A Clayton Productions, LLC Production
Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent, Producers
X/O “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production
Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production
JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers
Commentary: It's the clear front runner.
Commentary: Yay!
Best animated short film
X “I Met the Walrus”
A Kids & Explosions Production
Josh Raskin
“Madame Tutli-Putli” (National Film Board of Canada)
A National Film Board of Canada Production
Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
“Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)” (Premium Films)
A BUF Compagnie Production
Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
“My Love (Moya Lyubov)” (Channel One Russia)
A Dago-Film Studio, Channel One Russia and Dentsu Tec Production
Alexander Petrov
O “Peter & the Wolf” (BreakThru Films)
A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production
Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman
Commentary: I picked the short involving the Beatlesy topic, given the mass interest in Across the Universe.
Commentary: Whatever happened to the Disney version?
Best live action short film
“At Night”
A Zentropa Entertainments 10 Production
Christian E. Christiansen and Louise Vesth
X “Il Supplente (The Substitute)” (Sky Cinema Italia)
A Frame by Frame Italia Production
Andrea Jublin
O “Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)” (Premium Films)
A Karé Production
Philippe Pollet-Villard
“Tanghi Argentini” (Premium Films)
An Another Dimension of an Idea Production
Guido Thys and Anja Daelemans
“The Tonto Woman”
A Knucklehead, Little Mo and Rose Hackney Barber Production
Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown
Commentary: I've heard of this one.
Commentary: I never get to see these, so what do you want?
Achievement in sound editing
O “The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal)
Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Skip Lievsay
X “Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Randy Thom and Michael Silvers
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Matthew Wood
“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins
Commentary: Sound likes battles and loud noises. The only qualifyig movie is Transformers, and that's not going to win. I think rat noises are going to be popular this year.
Commentary: Yeah, I got nothing. I have to try watching the Bourne films again. I fell asleep during the first one.
Achievement in sound mixing
O “The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal)
Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
X “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
“3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate)
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin
Commentary: I got nothing.
Commentary: I still got nothing. My percentage is really low this year. Zounds. Hey, that sounds like "sounds!" Only not. I think people should bring back Zounds.
Achievement in visual effects
O “The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
X “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney)
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier
“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier
Commentary: The pirates have won this category before and for good reason. Several Jack Sparrows has to count for something.
Commentary: This is quite a surprise. Seriously, I thought Pirates would see this love again, especially since the visual effects were one of the only things people universally liked about this sequel. Makes me want to see The Golden Compass more now.
Adapted screenplay
X “Atonement” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
“Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
Written by Sarah Polley
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn)
Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
O “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
Commentary: The book and the movie have been widely discussed - I think this is the love Atonement will get.
Commentary: Well, darn. Bodes well for the directing award, though, eh?
Original screenplay
X/O “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Diablo Cody
“Lars and the Real Girl” (MGM)
Written by Nancy Oliver
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Written by Tony Gilroy
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Screenplay by Brad Bird
Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
“The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Tamara Jenkins
Commentary: Juno, the little engine that could (the not-so-indie indie), is this year's Little Miss Sunshine - and the script was pretty original.
Commentary: Naturally.
Let the games begin!

Well, so ends another year of Academy Awards. Stay with the group for periodic topics of discussion throughout the year. In retrospect, the only good prediction I made this year was the fact that I wouldn't do so well. But, I look forward to catching up on all these motion pictures I haven't seen. That's why we watch em, and that's why we Spout - we love movies!

Til next year!

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2008

pippin06 — Sat, 23 Feb 2008 17:05:14 GMT

Here are my predictions this year. Notes: I am very disconnected from this year's Oscars what with general lack of interest (I AM having one-woman conversations up in here), writers strikes making the future of the broadcast uncertain, and no time to go see any of the movies. I'm basing my predictions on time-tested rules, buzz, and random guessing. I'm expecting a low percentage this year.

Play along!

My predictions are marked by X's with some various commentary as to why.

pippin06:

Performance by an actor in a leading role
George Clooney in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
X Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
(DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah” (Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises” (Focus Features)
Commentary: He's a shoo-in. He's received all of the awards and praise from fellow nominees like George Clooney.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.)
X Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War” (Universal)
Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Commentary: He's also a shoo-in, receiving all the awards.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal)
X Julie Christie in “Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
Laura Linney in “The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
Ellen Page in “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
Commentary: Julie is a shoo-in too.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein Company)
Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” (Universal)
Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement” (Focus Features)
X Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone” (Miramax)
Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Commentary: This award is so up in the air. Ronan is not a contender. Cate has won gold in the same category already (The Aviator), but the fact that she's nominated twice this year might give her an edge in this, the likelier of the two categories. She's also got the Globe. Ruby Dee has the SAG (the usual predictor) and might be the sentimental favorite due to her age, but I think she might split the vote.with Cate Tilda is a sleeper, a BAFTA winner, and might surprise, but I doubt she'll see the gold. Amy won the Critics' Choice and is in a film well-received by critics and moviegoers alike. I'm giving her the edge by plurality.
Best animated feature film of the year
“Persepolis” (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
X “Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Brad Bird
“Surf's Up” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ash Brannon and Chris Buck
Commentary: This is Pixar's guaranteed comeback after the Cars snub - the other films don't have a chance, and if they do, someone at the Academy hates Pixar.
Achievement in art direction
“American Gangster” (Universal)
Art Direction: Arthur Max
Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
“Atonement” (Focus Features)
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
Art Direction: Dennis Gassner
Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti
Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
X “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Art Direction: Jack Fisk
Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
Commentary: Art Directors liked it, it's got a best picture nomination, it's a period picture...so many factors favor it. It would be cool if Sweeney Todd won, though, because that was some excellent (and freaky) art direction.
Achievement in cinematography
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.) Roger Deakins
“Atonement” (Focus Features) Seamus McGarvey
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Janusz Kaminski
X “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roger Deakins
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Robert Elswit
Commentary: This category is usually nominated to the best picture category, though that has been less true in recent years. It also likes outdoorsy camera work. I'm just guessing here.
Achievement in costume design
“Across the Universe” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Albert Wolsky
“Atonement” (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
X “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal) Alexandra Byrne
“La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Marit Allen
“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Colleen Atwood
Commentary: It's a period picture involving the time when the monarch was into forbidding wigs and gigantic dresses. It would be cool if Sweeney Todd won for its grotesque caricaturish clothing.
Achievement in directing
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Julian Schnabel
“Juno” (Fox Searchlight) Jason Reitman
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) Tony Gilroy
X “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Paul Thomas Anderson
Commentary: I think this is the Coen brothers' Cinderella year, unless they inherit Scorsese's curse. There will be no split, though. They've won the DGA, PGA, and a whole lotta love from the general public.
Best documentary feature
“No End in Sight” (Magnolia Pictures)
A Representational Pictures Production
Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience” (The Documentary Group)
A Documentary Group Production
Richard E. Robbins
X “Sicko” (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company)
A Dog Eat Dog Films Production
Michael Moore and Meghan O’Hara
“Taxi to the Dark Side” (THINKFilm)
An X-Ray Production
Alex Gibney and Eva Orner
“War/Dance” (THINKFilm)
A Shine Global and Fine Films Production
Andrea Nix Fine and Sean Fine
Commentary: Oscar likes Mike and controversy. I would be personally interested to hear what he might say this time.
Best documentary short subject
X “Freeheld”
A Lieutenant Films Production
Cynthia Wade and Vanessa Roth
“La Corona (The Crown)”
A Runaway Films and Vega Films Production
Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
“Salim Baba”
A Ropa Vieja Films and Paradox Smoke Production
Tim Sternberg and Francisco Bello
“Sari’s Mother” (Cinema Guild)
A Daylight Factory Production
James Longley
Commentary: Pure shot in the dark. I never see the shorts.
Achievement in film editing
“The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal) Christopher Rouse
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Juliette Welfling
“Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment) Jay Cassidy
X “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Dylan Tichenor
Commentary: This category is married to Best Picture; they predict each other most years; so it's a good bet.
Best foreign language film of the year
“Beaufort” A Metro Communications, Movie Plus Production
Israel
X “The Counterfeiters” An Aichholzer Filmproduktion, Magnolia Filmproduktion Production
Austria
“Katyń” An Akson Studio Production
Poland
“Mongol” A Eurasia Film Production
Kazakhstan
“12” A Three T Production
Russia
Commentary: Since the obvious choices weren't given love in this category, I picked the one I've even heard of. I expect to be wrong.
Achievement in makeup
“La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
“Norbit” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount) Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
X “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney) Ve Neill and Martin Samuel
Commentary: I'm favoring Keith Richards' eyeliner here.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
X “Atonement” (Focus Features) Dario Marianelli
“The Kite Runner” (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics) Alberto Iglesias
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) James Newton Howard
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
“3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate) Marco Beltrami
Commentary: It's won prior awards in this category, and it's a moving score for a moving picture. That usually helps.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
X “Falling Slowly” from “Once”
(Fox Searchlight)
Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
“Raise It Up” from “August Rush”
(Warner Bros.)
Nominees to be determined
“So Close” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
“That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”
(Walt Disney)
Music by Alan Menken
Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
Commentary: I'm 90% sure Once will get this award - it's been the subject of much of the accolades this film has received.
Best motion picture of the year
“Atonement” (Focus Features)
A Working Title Production
Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
“Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
A Dancing Elk Pictures, LLC Production
Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
A Clayton Productions, LLC Production
Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent, Producers
X “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production
Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production
JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers
Commentary: It's the clear front runner.
Best animated short film
X “I Met the Walrus”
A Kids & Explosions Production
Josh Raskin
“Madame Tutli-Putli” (National Film Board of Canada)
A National Film Board of Canada Production
Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
“Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)” (Premium Films)
A BUF Compagnie Production
Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
“My Love (Moya Lyubov)” (Channel One Russia)
A Dago-Film Studio, Channel One Russia and Dentsu Tec Production
Alexander Petrov
“Peter & the Wolf” (BreakThru Films)
A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production
Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman
Commentary: I picked the short involving the Beatlesy topic, given the mass interest in Across the Universe
Best live action short film
“At Night”
A Zentropa Entertainments 10 Production
Christian E. Christiansen and Louise Vesth
X “Il Supplente (The Substitute)” (Sky Cinema Italia)
A Frame by Frame Italia Production
Andrea Jublin
“Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)” (Premium Films)
A Karé Production
Philippe Pollet-Villard
“Tanghi Argentini” (Premium Films)
An Another Dimension of an Idea Production
Guido Thys and Anja Daelemans
“The Tonto Woman”
A Knucklehead, Little Mo and Rose Hackney Barber Production
Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown
Commentary: I've heard of this one.
Achievement in sound editing
“The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal)
Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Skip Lievsay
X “Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Randy Thom and Michael Silvers
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Matthew Wood
“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins
Commentary: Sound likes battles and loud noises. The only qualifyig movie is Transformers, and that's not going to win. I think rat noises are going to be popular this year.
Achievement in sound mixing
“The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal)
Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
X “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
“3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate)
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin
Commentary: I got nothing.
Achievement in visual effects
“The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
X “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney)
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier
“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro)
Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier
Commentary: The pirates have won this category before and for good reason. Several Jack Sparrows has to count for something.
Adapted screenplay
X “Atonement” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
“Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
Written by Sarah Polley
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn)
Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
Commentary: The book and the movie have been widely discussed - I think this is the love Atonement will get.
Original screenplay
X “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Diablo Cody
“Lars and the Real Girl” (MGM)
Written by Nancy Oliver
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
Written by Tony Gilroy
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Screenplay by Brad Bird
Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
“The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
Written by Tamara Jenkins

Commentary: Juno, the little engine that could (the not-so-indie indie), is this year's Little Miss Sunshine - and the script was pretty original.

Let the games begin!

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2008

pippin06 — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 20:39:10 GMT

Here is some commentary on surprises and snubs. A week late, but I have some time here and now.

In the Best Actor category, the surprise nomination is Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah. He has not previously been nominated for any similar awards. Surprising omission? A long shot, but better than Jones was Ryan Gosling for Lars and the Real Girl; he's received several nominations (and no wins) to date. I think prediction-wise, though, you best be looking at Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood. He's swept them all so far.

In the Supporting Actor category, there are no real surprises or snubs. (Think Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men come the big day, though).

In the Best Actress category, a surprise nomination for Laura Linney for The Savages (she's had no love up until now). There are no real snubs, though, because the win will probably without doubt go to Julie Christie for Away From Her, with the other four nominations acting sort of like wild-card "it's a thrill just to be nominated" honorees.

In the Supporting Actress category, no surprises or obvious snubs, though this category is rather up in the air.

For Best Director and Best Picture, I see no surprises or obvious snubs, with the clear front runners being No Country for Old Men and the Coen brothers.

For foreign language film, see the above post.

For the technical categories: nothing really jumps out at me. Do you see anything?

I will post a complete set of predictions closer to February 24, but in the meantime, share your predictions here! Any agreements or disagreements to the above?

Re:Predictions and Commentary, 2008

pippin06 — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 18:17:56 GMT

To start off the conversation about snubbery, here is an article from Saturday's Washington Post centered on the shortlist for foreign language film, which had a variety of omissions of previous award-show favorites, including 4 Months, 3 Days, 2 Nights and Persepolis. Foreign Languge Film is usually a hotly contested category, mainly because of the inconsistent eligibility rules and arthouse cred/interest these films generate, and the five nominees not only fail to include those shortlisted but also highly buzzed about entries such as The Kite Runner and Ang Lee's Lust, Caution. In addition, for reasons not fully clear to me (maybe I should go review the rules), while The Diving Bell and the Butterfly has received several mainstage award noms, it did not get nominated in Foreign Language Film. Last year, Pan's Labryinth enjoyed noms in several categories, including FLF.

Isn't it wonderful how Oscar fails to make logical sense sometimes? More observations to come, but if you have any reactions, please contribute!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/18/AR2008011803357.html

Predictions and Commentary, 2008

pippin06 — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 14:46:03 GMT

In this snowy, cold weather (even in the South, am I right?), we Oscarphiles have a list of nominations to needlessly overanalyze at will. I know I am excited! The Oscar noms are out and listed in our group.

This conversation is devoted ONLY to commentary about the nominees and winners and predictions if you so choose. Below is a convenient list for you to highlight and predict at will. In this conversation, talk about snubs and likely winners and likely losers and anything related to the actual nominees and the broadcast.

Any Oscar-related buzz, including the depressing possibility that the Oscars will suck if the writers continue to strike? Please discuss it in the buzz thread entitled "It's Upon Us Again - Oscar Buzz and Awards Season 2008." Thanks, y'all.

As always, I will not be making predictions until next month, closer to the (if it's even on anymore) broadcast, though I will be perusing the list soon and discussing some notable snubs and surprise nominees.

In the meantime, just wanted to note that several movies, particularly in the shorts and documentary categories, are not in Spout's database, so they have not been listed. There are actually quite a few, so just read the list below.

Without further adieu, here is the list from www.oscars.org. Predict away!

Performance by an actor in a leading role
	George Clooney in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)
	Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
	Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
	Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah” (Warner Independent)
	Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises” (Focus Features)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
	Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.)
	Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
	Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War” (Universal)
	Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
	Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)

Performance by an actress in a leading role
	Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal)
	Julie Christie in “Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
	Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
	Laura Linney in “The Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
	Ellen Page in “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
	Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein Company)
	Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” (Universal)
	Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement” (Focus Features)
	Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone” (Miramax)
	Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)

Best animated feature film of the year
	“Persepolis” (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
	“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Brad Bird
	“Surf's Up” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ash Brannon and Chris Buck

Achievement in art direction
	“American Gangster” (Universal) Art Direction: Arthur Max Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
	“Atonement” (Focus Features) Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
	“The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners) Art Direction: Dennis Gassner Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
	“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Art Direction: Dante Ferretti Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
	“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Art Direction: Jack Fisk Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Achievement in cinematography
	“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.) Roger Deakins
	“Atonement” (Focus Features) Seamus McGarvey
	“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Janusz Kaminski
	“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roger Deakins
	“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Robert Elswit

Achievement in costume design
	“Across the Universe” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Albert Wolsky
	“Atonement” (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
	“Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal) Alexandra Byrne
	“La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Marit Allen
	“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Colleen Atwood

Achievement in directing
	“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Julian Schnabel
	“Juno” (Fox Searchlight) Jason Reitman
	“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) Tony Gilroy
	“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
	“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Paul Thomas Anderson

Best documentary feature
	“No End in Sight” (Magnolia Pictures) A Representational Pictures Production Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
	“Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience” (The Documentary Group) A Documentary Group Production Richard E. Robbins
	“Sicko” (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company) A Dog Eat Dog Films Production Michael Moore and Meghan O’Hara
	“Taxi to the Dark Side” (THINKFilm) An X-Ray Production Alex Gibney and Eva Orner
	“War/Dance” (THINKFilm) A Shine Global and Fine Films Production Andrea Nix Fine and Sean Fine

Best documentary short subject
	“Freeheld” A Lieutenant Films Production Cynthia Wade and Vanessa Roth
	“La Corona (The Crown)” A Runaway Films and Vega Films Production Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
	“Salim Baba” A Ropa Vieja Films and Paradox Smoke Production Tim Sternberg and Francisco Bello
	“Sari’s Mother” (Cinema Guild) A Daylight Factory Production James Longley

Achievement in film editing
	“The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal) Christopher Rouse
	“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Juliette Welfling
	“Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment) Jay Cassidy
	“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
	“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Dylan Tichenor

Best foreign language film of the year
	“Beaufort” A Metro Communications, Movie Plus Production Israel
	“The Counterfeiters” An Aichholzer Filmproduktion, Magnolia Filmproduktion Production Austria
	“Katyń” An Akson Studio Production Poland
	“Mongol” A Eurasia Film Production Kazakhstan
	“12” A Three T Production Russia

Achievement in makeup
	“La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
	“Norbit” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount) Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
	“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney) Ve Neill and Martin Samuel

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
	“Atonement” (Focus Features) Dario Marianelli
	“The Kite Runner” (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics) Alberto Iglesias
	“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) James Newton Howard
	“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
	“3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate) Marco Beltrami

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
	“Falling Slowly” from “Once” (Fox Searchlight) Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
	“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted” (Walt Disney) Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
	“Raise It Up” from “August Rush” (Warner Bros.) Nominees to be determined
	“So Close” from “Enchanted” (Walt Disney) Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
	“That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted” (Walt Disney) Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

Best motion picture of the year
	“Atonement” (Focus Features) A Working Title Production Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
	“Juno” (Fox Searchlight) A Dancing Elk Pictures, LLC Production Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
	“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) A Clayton Productions, LLC Production Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent, Producers
	“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
	“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers

Best animated short film
	“I Met the Walrus” A Kids & Explosions Production Josh Raskin
	“Madame Tutli-Putli” (National Film Board of Canada) A National Film Board of Canada Production Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
	“Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)” (Premium Films) A BUF Compagnie Production Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
	“My Love (Moya Lyubov)” (Channel One Russia) A Dago-Film Studio, Channel One Russia and Dentsu Tec Production Alexander Petrov
	“Peter & the Wolf” (BreakThru Films) A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman

Best live action short film
	“At Night” A Zentropa Entertainments 10 Production Christian E. Christiansen and Louise Vesth
	“Il Supplente (The Substitute)” (Sky Cinema Italia) A Frame by Frame Italia Production Andrea Jublin
	“Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)” (Premium Films) A Karé Production Philippe Pollet-Villard
	“Tanghi Argentini” (Premium Films) An Another Dimension of an Idea Production Guido Thys and Anja Daelemans
	“The Tonto Woman” A Knucklehead, Little Mo and Rose Hackney Barber Production Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown

Achievement in sound editing
	“The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal) Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
	“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Skip Lievsay
	“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Randy Thom and Michael Silvers
	“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Matthew Wood
	“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro) Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins

Achievement in sound mixing
	“The Bourne Ultimatum” (Universal) Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
	“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
	“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
	“3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate) Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
	“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro) Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin

Achievement in visual effects
	“The Golden Compass” (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners) Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
	“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney) John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier
	“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro) Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier

Adapted screenplay
	“Atonement” (Focus Features) Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
	“Away from Her” (Lionsgate) Written by Sarah Polley
	“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” (Miramax/Pathé Renn) Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
	“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
	“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson

Original screenplay
	“Juno” (Fox Searchlight) Written by Diablo Cody
	“Lars and the Real Girl” (MGM) Written by Nancy Oliver
	“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) Written by Tony Gilroy
	“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Screenplay by Brad Bird Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
	“The Savages” (Fox Searchlight) Written by Tamara Jenkins