Even though the writers have apparently settled on a deal to end the strike, there is still a great deal to fear on the Oscar broadcast set for Feb. 24, that can be summed up in three simple words (two if you hyphenate correctly):
Oscar-winner 'Norbit'.
That's right. While many wrestle with the fact that their favorite films have been left off the nominee list (I understand, though don't agree with, the love-fest called Juno, but even my friends who are the most ardent supporters of the film agree that it has no place in the Best Picture and Best Director category) a film that was universally loathed like 'Norbit' has a shot at earning the most coveted trophies in the biz.
Here to give you an edge on the office ballots, I have opted to fill this column with a handy guide to this year's nominees, chock-full of winner predictions. (Plus, you can check out some of the shorts on your computer, links provided, free of charge. You're welcome!)
Best picture
“Atonement”
“Juno”
“Michael Clayton”
“No Country for Old Men”
“There Will Be Blood”
Winner: “No Country for Old Men. A sweeping 86 wins from various awards programs, coupled with the Academy's love for the Coens, means the “Old Men” should have a lot of life in them on Oscar night.
Best Director
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” Julian Schnabel
“Juno” Jason Reitman
“Michael Clayton” Tony Gilroy
“No Country for Old Men” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood” Paul Thomas Anderson
Winner: The Coens again will be awarded, not only for this film, but for their decades of impressive contributions to cinema, whereas the runner-up, Anderson, seems to be just beginning his remarkable run.
Best Actor
George Clooney in “Michael Clayton”
Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood”
Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah”
Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises”
Winner: Daniel Day Lewis. Of the film's 45 award wins, the majority have gone to Lewis, whose Daniel Plainview could have easily been the embodiment of evil, were it not for the actor who shades the character with the tiniest sliver of humanity.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
Julie Christie in “Away from Her”
Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose”
Laura Linney in “The Savages”
Ellen Page in “Juno”
Winner: Christie. Winning nods from coast (New York, D.C.) to coast (San Francisco, San Diego), to all parts in between (Arizona, Houston, Phoenix), as well as a BAFTA from overseas, Christie is a lock.
Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men”
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War”
Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild”
Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton”
Winner: Bardem. Who knew a bowl-cut could be so bad-ass? Bardem's emotionless killing machine is the embodiment of evil in “No Country.”
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There”
Ruby Dee in “American Gangster”
Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement”
Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone”
Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton”
Winner: Blanchett. Unless her two nominations this year cancel each other out, Blanchett is the best thing in an otherwise decent, but rather convoluted movie.
Best animated feature
“Persepolis”
“Ratatouille”
“Surf's Up”
Winner: “Ratatoille.” Unless the Academy chooses to show its indie credibility with selecting “Persepolis,” the little guy should go to Pixar's latest masterpiece, and one of its most technically lavish and emotionally mature works in its canon.
Best documentary feature
“No End in Sight”
“Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience”
“Sicko”
“Taxi to the Dark Side”
“War/Dance”
Winner: “No End in Sight.” My only hope is that an Oscar win will bolster this film's chances of being seen, since it is far and away one of the most insightful documentaries concerning the war in Iraq out there.
Art direction
“American Gangster”
“Atonement”
“The Golden Compass”
“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
“There Will Be Blood”
Winner: “There Will be Blood.” Only because “No Country for Old Men” didn't make it, the Academy will toss “Blood” a bone here.
Cinematography
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” Roger Deakins
“Atonement” Seamus McGarvey
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” Janusz Kaminski
“No Country for Old Men” Roger Deakins
“There Will Be Blood” Robert Elswit
Winner: “There Will Be Blood.” For true cinema geeks, this is the most exciting category of the evening. Deakins, whose work in “Jesse James” is nothing short of poetic, adequately captures the harsh dust bowls in “No Country.” But in “Blood,” there are entire stretches of time where not a word is uttered and we can drink in the sumptuous images captured by Elswit.
Costume design
“Across the Universe” Albert Wolsky
“Atonement” Jacqueline Durran
“Elizabeth: The Golden Age” Alexandra Byrne
“La Vie en Rose” Marit Allen
“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” Colleen Atwood
Winner: “Atonement.” After sweeping up at the BAFTA awards last weekend, the period piece that is perhaps more notable for its costume over its content. In particular, Kiera Knightly's green dress in act one may cinch the prize alone.
Best documentary short subject
“Freeheld”
“La Corona (The Crown)”
“Salim Baba”
“Sari’s Mother”
Winner: “Sari's Mother.” Look for director James Longley's tale of a mother in Iraq trying to get health care for her young AIDS-afflicted son to take the prize. It helps that he's earned such prior praise with his doc “Iraq in Fragments.'
Editing
“The Bourne Ultimatum” Christopher Rouse
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” Juliette Welfling
“Into the Wild” Jay Cassidy
“No Country for Old Men” Roderick Jaynes
“There Will Be Blood” Dylan Tichenor
Winner: “No Country for Old Men.” Perhaps more than any other technical category, “No Country” earns its stripes for its near-perfect slicing.
Foreign language film
“Beaufort” Israel
“The Counterfeiters” Austria
“Katyń” Poland
“Mongol” Kazakhstan
“12” Russia
Winner: “Beaufort.” In a rather weak field, “Beaufort” is the only film that seems to be making any critical waves. And if Borat had done enough to sully the name of Kazakhstan, “Mongol” has been doing a bang-up job on its own.
Makeup
“La Vie en Rose”
“Norbit”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”
Winner: “Pirates.” So help me, Rick Baker has been a pioneer in real-life visual effects, but if he walks with one for transforming Eddie Murphy into a gargantuan shrew, I'm out, man. Game over.
Original score
“Atonement”
“The Kite Runner” Distributed by Paramount Classics) Alberto Iglesias
“Michael Clayton”
“Ratatouille”
“3:10 to Yuma”
Winner: “Michael Clayton.” Where the hell was Jonny Greenwood's eclectic, haunting orchestration for “There Will Be Blood”? Because of some lame technicality, it was left off. None of the other candidates here are even in the same league, but Clayton's is the only score that I can still recall after seeing the film, so it gets my vote.
Original song
“Falling Slowly” from “Once”
“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”
“Raise It Up” from “August Rush”
“So Close” from “Enchanted”
“That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”
Winner: “Falling Slowly.” Sure, there's overwhelming odds that “Enchanted” could pick it up here, and it deserves some love, but more for a nomination for its lead Amy Adams, not in its cheeky, but slight, soundtrack.
Best animated short film
“I Met the Walrus” (trailer)
“Madame Tutli-Putli” (full film)
“Même les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)” ( full film)
“My Love (Moya Lyubov) for Natalie” (Channel One Russia) (full film, part 2's link is provided after film)
“Peter & the Wolf” (BreakThru Films)
Winner: My Love. Like a Renoir painting come to life, this is one of the most lavish 2-D animated films in quite some time.
Best live action short film
“At Night” (clip)
“Il Supplente (The Substitute)” (full film)
“Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)” (full film)
“Tanghi Argentini”
“The Tonto Woman” (trailer)
Winner: “Il Supplente.” Comic gold and a great punchline.
Sound editing
“The Bourne Ultimatum”
“No Country for Old Men”
“Ratatouille”
“There Will Be Blood”
“Transformers”
Winner: “No Country for Old Men.” It could be a toss up with “There Will Be Blood,” but I have a feeling that the cold thud of Javier Bardem's pneumatic air gun gives it a slight edge.
Sound mixing
“The Bourne Ultimatum”
“No Country for Old Men”
“Ratatouille”
“3:10 to Yuma”
“Transformers”
Winner: Transformers. Kevin O'Connell and Greg P. Russell have a combined 32 nominations in their career. It's time Oscar paid them for their labor for their work literally making heavy metal.
Visual effects
“The Golden Compass”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”
“Transformers”
Winner: Transformers. Was there a part of this film that was not a visual effect? “Compas” flopped, “Pirates” sailed off with the trophy last year, plus, wouldn't it be cool to have a statue that morphed into a robot that would blow up screenwriter Diablo Cody's prize?
Adapted screenplay
“Atonement” Christopher Hampton
“Away from Her” Sarah Polley
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” Ronald Harwood
“No Country for Old Men” Joel and Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood” Paul Thomas Anderson
Winner: “No Country for Old Men.” This one will be swept up in the Coen fever that will take hold on Oscar night, though I think “Blood” will have a longer shelf life with repeated viewings.
Original screenplay
“Juno” Diablo Cody
“Lars and the Real Girl” Nancy Oliver
“Michael Clayton” Tony Gilroy
“Ratatouille” Brad Bird
“The Savages” Tamara Jenkins
Winner: Diablo Cody for Juno. I think the Academy members have a stake in the merchandising of the T-shirts, since the entire script seems ready to be ironed on to the front of clothing, line by agonizing line.