Ladies and gentlemen, we're but a mere seven days from the official start of the 2008 summer movie season. Hollywood is hoping the current box office slump will take a turn for the better and begin to rise with releases such as 'Speed Racer', the next trip to Narnia 'Prince Caspian' and Indiana Jones' highly anticipated adventure 'Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' all in the coming weeks. This past week Entertainment Weekly put out their summer preview issue which includes projections for what they believe will be the top ten grossing films of the summer. That list is as follows:
$355.9 mil 01 - 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull'
$310.8 mil 02 - 'The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian'
$280.4 mil 03 - 'Hancock'
$280.3 mil 04 - 'Wall-E'
$267.7 mil 05 - 'Iron Man'
$255 mil 06 - 'The Dark Knight'
$244.6 mil 07 - 'Kung Fu Panda'
$176.5 mil 08 - 'The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor'
$147.2 mil 09 - 'The Incredible Hulk'
$146.6 mil 10 - 'Tropic Thunder'
Expectations are high all across the board. The cumulative total of those estimates comes to $2.465 billion, just $20 million behind the overall top ten of last year. I'm sorry to burst anyone's bubble, but there is no way in hell the box office is going to bring in those kind of numbers this year. 2007 was the biggest year in history and to say it'll be close here in 2008 is ignorant.
Even being the goldenboy at the moment won't generate $280 million for Will Smith in 'Hancock.' While promotion online may be plentiful this is one film people aren't talking about. As far as super heroes go this summer, it's all about Iron Man and Batman; not some medicore made-up comedian that can fly. A projected total of $176 million for 'Tomb of the Dragon Emperor?' Smack dab in the middle of the release weeks for 'X-Files: I Want to Believe' and 'Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D' (which also stars Fraser...) will no doubt put a crimp in it's style and overall revenue. Also, most of the general public at the moment haven't a clue that this is even coming out in August. (Yeah, that means start sending out the posters to the theaters now Universal.) The fact is its been seven years too long since anyone cared about encino man fighting off a CGI monster. Probably the most shocking of the predictions though is the amusingly ambitious $310 million for 'Narnia.' This time the buzz isn't as loud and the idea this installment promises to be darker will in my opinion deter many parents from flocking to see it. 'Wall-E' will in fact be Disney's bread and butter this year.
The following list is my take on what I assume the actual top ten films and their total grosses will be.
$350 mil 01 - 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull'
$280 mil 02 - 'The Dark Knight'
$250 mil 03 - 'Wall-E'
$235 mil 04 - 'Iron Man'
$225 mil 05 - 'The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian'
$208 mil 06 - 'Kung Fu Panda'
$183 mil 07 - 'Hancock'
$145 mil 08 - 'Tropic Thunder'
$142 mil 09 - 'The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor'
$130 mil 10 - 'Get Smart'
The combined total of my list ends up as $2.127, which is far more plausible then Entertainment Weekly's hilarious estimates. Now there are also a few films that could possibly prove to be surprisers when it's all said and done. (I didn't include them in the above list because I find them each to be too big of a wildcard.) Depending on just how many hardcore fans of the once popular show of the same name get out and see it, 'Sex and the City' could bring in anywhere from $95-$130 million. The option to do two sequels wasn't included in the leading ladies' contracts for nothing. Then of course there's the re-start to the Hulk series which is getting more and more attention as the weeks pass. A sum of $130-$149 doesn't seem to impossible to me if all goes well for it. Most importantly though is the quite colorful adaptation from the Wachowski brothers: 'Speed Racer.' A hefty promotion deal with Mattel, McDonald's, Target, General Mills, Esurance, Lego and others could drive the film to finish as high as $185 million (no, I'm not kidding) depending how well audiences respond. The only sure things about this summer are 'Indiana Jones' will not live up to it's hype, 'Dark Knight' will positively rock and 'Wall-E' will be Pixar's finest animated feature to date.