Forget about betting on the NFL playoffs. Forget about betting on the Oscar nominations. In fact, forget about betting on whether the Oscars will even happen. The only thing you gamblers should be betting on right now is whether Cloverfield is going to be a box office hit or a box office bomb. Because right now, it’s any body’s game. If the monster movie ends up being the former, it will most likely only be only a modest hit. But if it’s the latter, it will be legendary. Actually, some people think the movie is going to be this year’s Snakes on a Plane. I have a feeling it has more appeal on its own than did Snakes, mainly because people are curious about the monster. There was nothing in the marketing of Snakes on a Plane that made us wonder, nothing that wet our appetites for surprises. Now, if we had already seen a visual of Cloverfield’s monster it would be a different story. And after the opening weekend, after somebody posts a photo of the monster on the web (instead of simply a rendering), moviegoers may no longer be as interested in going to see it. So, the real bet is that Cloverfield will make a decent amount of money in its opening, but like most Hollywood product will suffer a huge drop in ticket sales afterward.
I think that a lot of people are really hoping for Cloverfield to crash and burn, though. On Sunday, the New York Post featured an article detailing why Cloverfield will bomb. Of course, the Post is owned by the same people who want you to believe Cloverfield exploits 9/11. The article was also written before the first press screening, which is apparently tonight (I won’t be there, unfortunately). So far, though, some people have managed to see the movie, including Harry Knowles, that other hilariously nutty AICN dude, Jeffrey Wells and E!, and everyone seems to love it. So, I’m putting all in for Cloverfield to win at the box office this weekend. We’ll see on Sunday if I’ve gone for broke or won the pot.
Originally posted on:
SpoutBlog